Thanks for those thoughts Pickem. Nice to have some contrary views honestly expressed. (after all, SOMEONE had to be selling...).
I agree with much of your reading of why Troy is being overlooked atm - not because of it is fully priced (far from it), but because some perceive there are quick profits to be made elsewhere.
I disagree with your decision to sell, however.
For me, the risk/reward matrix for Troy is as good as it gets. I seriously expect a 100% gain in 12 months, with very little downside risk due to the superb asset backing (pre-Casposo settlement, 75% of the sp is cash backed).
A couple of points:
- remember Troy is still in the ramp-up phase. This quarter we will start to see some decent grades go through the mill in Brazil. So that EV of just above $20m will be shrinking rapidly as the cash accumulates more quickly. I would expect an improvement in recovery rates as the grade improves also...
- The iron ore project is back on the radar now. Whether TRY chooses to sell it, or run with it themselves, its value is in no way being recognised. If it were a stand-alone iron ore stock, with a US$5m capex, 500,000tpa DSO, what would you value it at? And it appears that it is a robust project for export to the Chinese, or for product sale to the local steel mill. I suspect the value of this project alone is greater than Troy's current EV. (>$A20m)
- The director's have bought on the market. CEO last year at 80cents, and another director more recently at $1.26.
- Troy have now added to their reserves via the Casposo purchase. So, the doubt as to the use of the pile of cash has been removed. And no concerns related to Troy's previous lack of mine-life.
- Lastly, the excitement over the Casposo purchase has died down. But make no mistake, this purchase is a steal. Troy will be making profits from their existing mines whilst developing this high-grade open-pit beauty.
Anyway, hope to have you back on the registry before long. Good luck with your alternative investments.
Y
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- cash up, cost per oz down. all good
cash up, cost per oz down. all good, page-19
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