Revised Graph Following 11/02/2021 Production UpdateAs usual the following is not investment advice and I am simply sharing some of my background research with fellow posters.
Cut & Paste from the Parent graph accessed by clicking on the link at the end of this post.
- Since there is some gas appearing it is a pretty good bet we are somewhere near the critical desorption pressure.
- My impression of where we are on the water and gas curves is shown using the red arrows pointing to the small generic CSG water/Gas /Time graph on bottom right hand corner of the main graph.
- We may ne lucky to be a bit ahead of the original dewatering period but this does not surprise me given the better than expected pumping rates.
- I have taken a lot of trouble to plot the main graph on a scatter plot which was a fiddley exercise but it accommodates differing intervals between reporting dates so that it is much easier by eye to see what is happening. These now have day numbers on the axis below.
- The red Water Production line looks like it is heading down just below a linear projection rather than going asymptotic to the horizontal which is just what I would like it to do.
All of a sudden a number of contra opinions warning of pilot failure and dire economic consequences have emerged by some relatively new new posters who do not appear to hold shares.
I must admit I am curious why they waited until we looked like reaching desorption pressure to comment.
I am personally not too worried about the Galilee shareholders with significant CSG/CGB experience or the $2M plus of money that bought shares yesterday but in fairness to some investors these differing opinions must be very confusing and IMO some of the assertions that have been made are at best based on superseded legacy data.
I personally have paid honest money for peer reviewed permeability data at 1M intervals in the formation from the legacy pilot adjacent to the present Glenaras pilot.
I have thought about it and IMO the best thing to do is to simply wait and review the empirical data from the Pilot performance over the coming weeks.I assure fellow posters that if I thought that everything was not in order that I would soon let the Galilee board Know!.
On a number of occasions I have referred to my Model and some of you may have wondered why I have not published it because it would probably answers a lot of questions.
It jolly well ought to because I put about 1,000 hours into developing the blessed thing because I saw that the Glenaras pilot, combined with the expertise of the Galilee board and Schlumberger presented a unique opportunity.
At the same incredible advances in the use of satellites using the minute tidal movement of water in aquifers is being developed by NASA.
The full Modeling system now contains increasingly valuable intellectual property and for that reason I am hesitant to publish it.
It has undergone peer review by some very experienced industry people and is constantly being improved with their help.
However to give you some Idea of a cut down version of it perhaps readers would like to click on this link.
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/elixir-geopolitical-risk-and-reward.5850397/page-2?post_id=50073450
Have a look at the Field Development Planning Dashboard in the model pdf to get some idea of some of the variables that need to be taken into account as well as the Whose Who in the Geopolitical Zoo file.!
A more detailed version of this was used to scale up the pilot and and calculate the economics of Galilees project
The updated Parent graph for this post.
Glenaras_Dewatering_Graph.pdfBest regards
OGP
(20min delay)