AGL Future Earnings, page-9

So my take on this, the numerous posts about AGL being a great dividend payer are focusing on the current dividend and then extrapolating that dividend into the future.

Use the above reports I would estimate that dividends will be cut to around 60c (with downside risk of say 50c) by 2023.

So any decision to buy AGL at current prices should and as a dividend play should be made off this number. And also remember that this dividend is unfranked, if AGL starts franking again, it will reduce the dividend (but will give a franking component).

Given the uncertainty with the future business model of AGL I am still sitting on the sidelines.

Especially as even though they have announced a dividend, the share price is falling before the ex-dividend date. If it is falling ex-dividend date, one would assume it would fall even more after the dividend ex-date.