Hi Justin, All, my two cents worth....
First of all, thank you to the individual who created the separate conversation line with all the extra-curricular stuff, seriously much appreciated, I found it somewhat distracting
Contingent Resources
These depict volumes of gas defined by well penetrations, cores, coal samples (chips or cores) that show that after correlation between wells a significant enough area can be commercially viable.
But... it is contingent. Contingent on e.g. productivity of wells, area. Also contingent on viable development, what infrastructure is planned and possible, gas sales contracts, you get the drift. Not necessarily a requirement to have proven productivity, that would place associated volumes in to the reserves category, which is also great, ain't there yet, but we will.
GLL
Thank you all, Justin for the compilation of this data.
Some thoughts. It is mentioned that Glenaras 6 stable production at 54MSCFD, in the greater scheme of things, calling stable production after 4 days might be a bit of a stretch. Well still dewatering, pressure depleting, gas production will increase, I have no doubt on that. In addition, note that this rate may be commercial in an Australian scene, it will be a fantastic well in a Mongolian setting.
A lesson from the data and presentation provided is that CSG wells need pumps, to dewater, and that pumps fail, depending on fines production, coal or sand production. Well maintenance is extremely important in a CSG development, requires continuous monitoring and remediation, which is fine, fact of life.
Also note that thickness of coal seams plays a large role, also how the fractures are distributed within the coal seams. Ideally one would like to have a thick seam with well developed fracture system throughout the seam, connecting everything together and to the wells, near perfect drainage. Sod's law, this does not always happen, but a well can be stimulated to solve for any perceived deficiencies.
Please note the mention of promising water production. This is the first indicator of permeability, connectivity resulting in depressurization leading to gas production (through desorption). So lots of water is good, assuming that one can do something with it, store it, evaporate, desalinate and feed it to vegetation, plantation.
So in a nutshell, for contingent resources you don't need proven sustainable production, but then it will be contingent upon proven and sustainable production...
The timeline as presented by NY and referred, repeated by yourself makes a lot of sense, this will work
On a side note, you may want to have look at
https://YouTube.be/_1LdMWINYS4, "That time it rained for 2 million years" (PBS EONS), it explains rather nicely why coal can be laterally so extensive. Also gives a perspective on global warming/cooling, but that is a different topic...
All in all, all of this and more makes EXR's project so absolutely fantastic!
(20min delay)