We're still on two different planets - which is fine.
When I say "marriage" I mean I am buying on the basis of what she can deliver me (love, companionship etc) - not whether or not others will covet her in the future. But I am fully aware, right from the start, that if at some point others covet here more than what she delivers me (such as if we fall out of love, etc) - that divorce is definitely an option.
The only businesses where "marrying for life" (which I think is what you mean) may be worth contemplating, are those with a supreme moat that can constantly increase their value. Yes, these are very rare - but not relevant to my point.
My point is that IV is what my wife can offer me (& I her, of course) and that drives my decision to marry (buy). My assessment of IV is not influenced by the fact that I expect that in the future others will covet my wife to a higher degree than the value I will be assigning her.
Yes, thinking of IV as a hard and fast number, is BS. I would never suggest otherwise. IV is what YOU think the business is worth to YOU - not some number that spits out of some consensus. What's more, it exists on a probability spectrum - for all the reasons you mention (obsolescence, management malfeasance, management changes, changes to competitive landscape etc etc etc etc ).
But this has always been true - it's not something that's just materialized with SAAS or whatever is currently hot.
