Exhaustion gaps are usually the most likely to be filled because they signal the end of a price trend, while continuation and breakaway gaps are significantly less likely to be filled since they are used to confirm the direction of the current trend, Based on your chart it’s a confirmed breakaway gap.
So a price drop to fill last April’s break away gap fits into your 1% that you leave on the table of your 99% of the time comment. But you’re right, it’s all my own opinion.
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