The SPARCS vote IS a big deal. There are NZ$142M of SPARCS bonds on issue, which is roughly A$110M to be redeemed.
If the vote on May 15 is no, not only will be people who voted for the conversion be converted into shares, but the remaining balance will all need to be either repaid on Nov 30 or totally turned into shares.
In my opinion, unless all of the corporate debt and BBI Networks bonds are completely paid off before then AND BBI has the physical cash to redeem the SPARCS bonds, they are going to turn into shares. I don't find it very likely that the cash will be available on Nov 30.
Even if I give a generous 15 cents as the average BBI share price for the total conversion, that would be A$110M/.15 = 733M extra shares to be issued out. There are 2.38B shares on issue. That would represent a 31% dilution to BBI ords holders.
A lot of the holders (as Melua says) are not mandated to hold BBI shares. I would hate to be a BBI ord holder and have 700M shares needing to be sold into the market. They would be a real g00sing.
Naturally that is a worst case scenario, but as far as I am concerned this IS a big deal. If you are buying BBI ords at present either:
1. You are praying the SPARCS deal will go through.
OR
2. You already know the outcome of the SPARCS vote by knowing what proxies BBI is holding.
I find it hard to believe that some special large buyer is buying the ords and ignoring the SPARCS vote outcome. They would be extremely foolish if they were to do so.
Personally I think the SPARCS vote will go through, but I wouldn't be betting on it.........
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