I agree with a lot of what you say
@Watchfulbull, however with regard to the FS, it is actually necessary right now because as they state in the FS "Project Financing Well Underway".
The assumptions and parameters of this FS are super conservative and they have to be in order to get the financing done, the FS shows they want financing done before end of year. This was always going to impact SP, and particularly in an environment where POG has been in downtrend for over 6 mths and is sitting right around the lows, my sense of it is BGL SP has stood up really well in recent times - today was a bit of a re-rate.
It has already been mentioned that BGL was 1.2 X NPV
The FS will be updated before end of June Qtr I believe, and may be again thereafter before financing is done with. The thing is, quite apart from the conservative FS, BGL will continue to grow their Resource for years to come - I believe this to be highly likely.
A larger Resource will make for a longer LOM, when I think about it I would have liked to have seen 200,000 oz per year into a 1,000,000 mtpa mill ( which would significantly enhance economics and profitability), but the necessarily conservative FS at this time doesn't permit those numbers.
It should be noted however that BGL wanted/had to achieve at least a 7 year LOM, which they've done but they also state that the mill throughput/design can be increased before commitment, and that the mill design is also readily expandable going forward.
I believe LOM at Bellevue will eventually be in excess of 15 years, and with a significantly larger Resource. It is really still early days in terms of resource definition, and BGLs' Geos and mngmt look to have a very good handle on the local mineralization and geology.
I look at todays price action as an over-reaction, but if you look at Oz gold miners BGL has fared quite well recently compared to most peers. Look at DEG (another explorer and market darling), the market has been very harsh there (highs of around $1.50 now trading around 80c), then take a look at big boy KLA (lowest AISC in Oz, super high grade, over 600K oz per year) a few months ago it was trading around $75 - today it sits around $50.
BGL has held up until today, which is unfortunate, but the fundamentals here are still too good to ignore IMO, and the price will recover with an increasing POG (which is not far away now although price could still go below US$1700 briefly but the low is not far away in terms of time and price). But as I've outlined above the next FS will at least have larger resource, which will continue to grow for years from here,
Todays FS is just the beginning of the development of a highly profitable long term high grade mine, and mngmt have bitten the bullet, but this is completely in line with their announced dual track pathway to early production.This will inevitably lead to SP appreciation, but you have to do the hard yards to develop a mine, and as an investor you need to know why you are invested. You also need to understand that many junior explorers do not get to the mine stage before they go broke or move on elsewhere. IMO BGL WILL get to be a miner.
The FS was inevitable and they all too often impact SP negatively, and in this case at a near low in POG to boot, personally I have no problems at all with BGL mngmt, and support todays developments, but I am a LT holder who knows this will NOT be built in a day, and today is a necessary step in the right direction.
Don't panic, but if you do - there will be plenty of interest in your shares at these prices, the outcomes in this FS will improve going forward; and one other thing my thinking is BGL will be very close to at least $1.50 within the next 6 months.
All IMO
GLTAH
mc
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