Just some general thoughts on Zip
1) Affirm has a market cap of around 30 Bil and zip around 7 Billion, yet Zip has more customers than Affirm.. There shouldn't be a big difference in the quality of the customers as all BNPL have a similar customer base... Management-wise, yes Affirm is Very good with former paypal founder with deep connections...but Larry and Peter are not too bad too....remember, they started with just one customer at a bike shop.
2) Based on Tower sensor download data, quad pay has a very similar download rate as affirm.. by again Zip is valued at much much less
3) Based on Apple IOS data, Quadpay is number 36 in shopping category and Affirm #37, Afterpay is much better at #24 but that is why Afterpay is valued at 6x Zip. Affirm and Zip I would consider a very similar quality but Affirm is trading at around 4x more than Zip... To be honest, Quadpay is already worth 7 Bil...yet Zip the entire group is only trading at around that.
4) Further stimulus proposed by Biden and also record January Retail data coming out of USA is very promising, online shopping being the main beneficiary... hence we can assume BNPL will benefit
5) Rumour are not substantiated but there are some truth to it, Larry and Peter wont be doing a roadshow and selling Quad/Zip to investors if there are no exciting numbers coming out of their business. If Zip and Quad are only doing OK, they won't be wasting their time selling the business.
6) Zip can be used at Amazon Australia, they have recently surpassed 1 bil in retail sales. If Zip plays any part in this and Australia is usually a testing ground for USA/European markets, IF and that is a big IF, Quadpay becomes the sole BNPL for Amazon in USA. WE will see zip zooming past $30.
7) Valuation Per se, we will no doubt see the major players' valuation gap narrowing, Zip will go up and afterpay will come down.
8) Went to the local shopping centre the other day and spoke to some retailers that uses Zip, all are very please with zip mainly for the reasons 1) easy to use 2) attract more customers 3) quite a lot of their transactions are now Zip.... not to say this represents the entire market... but it does show BNPL is here to stay.... and Zip is getting used often
9) for these people that says CC are much better, 1) Zip fees are more transparent 2) Zip is more flexible 3) Zip is cool to the younger generations .... also, when the whole Zip community is established, Zip will earn fees from Merchants, customers, People will be able to use Zip all over the world for a much less fee or even no fees apply..... In a crazy world where Bitcoins are trading above $55,000 USD.... Tesla being the most shorted company in the world for years.... anything can happen
Just my thoughts, who knows what Thursday will bring. but for now, it's looking positive.
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