ASX Today, page-2393

For completeness, the true value here is getting the hydroxide/sulphate part to production (and market believing as such). Added two columns, from the SS, and you can see what happens to SP if those parts get to production. I suspect, given it is a Scoping Study, market currently not pricing in that aspect so the DFS here will be the first trigger point. And obviously the market needs to believe.

2 billion shares:


3 billion shares:


With Offtakes and funding, I think that is where you will see the biggest movements. The market will then believe LTR will get to production.

You can also see from the above the difference in SP outcomes when the market moves from NPV valuations to nominal valuations in production.

Results lower if use P/E15 btw, so P/E ratio also important to any analysis. Also confident the Ann price assumptions will be achievable, with those price assumptions relatively similar to those used by other hard rock producers on a go-forward basis (i.e. from 2023 onwards that is). If those prices are not achieved, well it impacts EPS, feasibility and the prospects of all lithium hopefuls btw as it means demand is also not growing as expected. I explained what 3 TWh means before:



Obviously the above calcs are spodumene equivalent by the way, so brine will play a role as well, albeit in the growing lithium hydroxide market, hard rock is likely more preferred. As a point of reference, in 2020 GWH demand was 300GWh, so 3,000 GWH in 2030 is a ten fold increase.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103218/global-battery-demand-forecast/

It is all about demand ultimately. It doesn't matter what a DFS says if spodumene prices remain low. Demand growth and supply shortage is what will bring the average spodumene prices back to above US$600 per tonne for example, and it is demand growth that will create the capacity for new greenfields entrants. Europe establishing giga factories and a lithium chemicals industry is also a key to ensuring China's dominance of the market is broken which will also be good for prospective producers. The cogs are turning on these fronts IMO, especially in Europe based on the articles that are continually posted on this thread and other threads.

Would be interesting what brokers use as spodumene prices in an outlook when establishing fair value.

Anyway my thoughts using the Ann data.

All IMO