AT1 FY21 - General Discussion + FA, page-893

they have reported good financials; every area they are in is steady or growing

re profitable, if they do not need to pay more $ for more scale up (now complete), I think they are close to break even, at current level of sales. They lost $2mill at EBITDA, but if you look at the one offs you have

foreign currency 1/2 mill
r&d 1/2 mill (expensed), but they put 1.9mill onto the balance sheet

and we have


now re revenue we have




$2.61 mill Current Access Bio agreement $$ replaces NG Biotech $$ very evenly (for 2021 calendar year) with likihood of growth (if FDA approval); Other covid channels are not going backward, but growing (eg Aussie growth from NIL to $400k)
$0.77 mill HIV they say is growing, and was on hold, because of covid
$1.11 mill OEM Lumos is in 'ramp up' so will grow

Adding up we have half year of 4.5 mill revenue; and at that minor level, cash flow is not a problem; And the balance sheet has an extra 1.4 mill of inventories built up over the last 6 months

Now where does that leave us? Well, AT1 can survive for years on this minor level of sales; but one can surely think the revenue avenues will grow; I think the covid will stay steady, we will only be a bit player - but not going backward; HIV will grind up for many years (at 10% or 15% or ??%); OEM is the rocket ship

Since the margin is 55% (hmmmm, it was over 60% last half year, so I dont know why it fell, likely the mix of product)... but at 55%, if you increase sales only a little, you get into very cash flow positive; let us say the Canaccord $13 mill revenue for year is correct, that puts us at $7.5 mill for 2nd half; a $3 mill half on half improvement; and at 55% you are cash flow positive to the tune of $1.5 mill; and I think your ebitda will be very close to break even there

So, my projection of 1 cent eps for this year, I think I need to withdraw; we will likely be cash flow positive but ebitda break even

the investment case is now all about the three current revenue streams, covid and HIV and OEM (namely Lumos); if you read those markets correctly, you will know what to do; of course if NG Biotech did not go away, we would have covid revenue doubling right there; so as well as reading the market, you need to read our partners