"The World Health Organisation says the number of confirmed swine flu cases has risen by nearly 1,000 in 24 hours to 8,451."
"A mathematical study, published in the US journal Science this week, showed that the virus, while contagious, has a case fatality rate at 0.4-0.6 per cent - far lower than feared although somewhat higher than a normal "seasonal" flu."
I just thought I would do a VERY SIMPLE analysis of the current trend in growth of infections. The latest trend in no of cases seems to be doubling every 6 days. (16/5 - 8,451 cases, 9/5 3,440 cases). However, the rate of doubling in reported cases seems to be falling from doubling every 2 days to every 6 days. This trend may continue.
I just thought I would show the data as most people seem to be implying WHO has overreacted.
Historical data:
Date....No of Cases....Days until No of Cases Doubled....Deaths....Days until No of Deaths Doubled...Reference
Very simple analysis, makes no allowance for seasonal variation, chnage in detah rates from treatment, etc. However, does highlight that if current infection trend continues, the size of the problem will not hit the actual statistics until August.
I actually expect it to be a lot less because of the end of the flu season in Northern Hemisphere and hopefully the development of a vacine by the next flu season.
Please don't critics too much. The exercise is really only a demonstration of what could happen if the current growth rate in infections were to continue and presumably why WHO is concerned.
Regards
SP
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