Notice in the Table below the past 4 periods of Short Term Opportunity Investing.
They end around the 20% mark (i.e after rising 20%) and the start of the rally to its end has been around 5 months. We are now over 20% and is now in our 5th month ! Very uncanny resemblance.
Mark Twain said history does not always repeat itself but often rhymes.
Column 1
Column 2
Column 3
Column 4
Column 5
Column 6
0
S&P500
Duration (months)
What STOIS (Short Term Opportunity Investing) did
1
14 Aug 2017
2419
2
22 Jan 2018
2877
18.9%
5
Tech Boom
Engaged
3
5 Feb 2018
2605
-9.5%
End of Tech Boom
Exit a week prior and a week after
4
5
31 Dec 2018
2448
6
29 April 2019
2946
20.3%
5
2018 Xmas nightmare recovery
Slight late engagement
7
28 May 2019
2738
-7.1%
End of Rally-inverted yield curve
Exit upon inverted yield curve
8
9
19 Aug 2019
2823
10
10 Feb 2020
3382
19.8%
5.75
Post-Trade War Rally
Sidelined -no engagement
11
23 Mar 2020
2217
-34.4%
COVID crash
Avoided crash and stood by Bear camp longer than should
