My last few comments on why I believe CTM is STILL significantly undervalued at the current levels.Ive broken this into 3 compelling reasons as below.
1.-Nickel Market and the revolutionary change into a "greener environment"
2.The Jaguar Project overtime will be proven as a
Tier 1World Class Asset
3.-The Sleeper,Jambreiro Iron Ore Project.No valuation in the current SP
I will clarify each of my points in more details below.
1.-Nickel Market ,The world has changed and with President Biden,the "Green" space has had a rocket put under the pace of change.EV are really starting to "boom" with the amount of investment ploughed into the total EV market is simply staggering and beyond belief.We have now gone past the "no return" stage and the ICE (Internal Combustion Engine,thought I should clarify)manufacturing will be a dinosaur sooner rather than later.The Ni price has to explode with the limited investment on finding new resources globally down from $7Billion to only $2Billion in the last decade.Jaguar timing is perfect!!!
Remembering Ni Sulphide is the cleaner and more "greener"option than converting Ni Laterite into a Class 1 battery grade,and is much more expansive to bring into production and also has environmental issues in some cases.Interesting Papua New Guinea starting to run into head winds with the conversions,in particular with DST(Deep Sea Tailings)as no new permits will be allowed has been confirmed by the Government going forward.Stay tuned I feel in this space.
Lastly where will Ni prices end up is the big unknown.Will we crack the US$50,000PT as we did in 2007???Im not sure but we won't trading at US$18,500 PT.
2.-Jaguar Project,This will be proven over time as a Tier 1 and significant player in the Ni Sulphide space.(Investors it does take time to drill these projects out)I feel the Management have under promised and over delivered with Jaguar,and one could say this project has not been "talked up" by Management (Not like others in this space) and that's why our SP has just been creeping up.It is fair to say ,again I feel they will let the project do the talking for them,with the much anticipated SS to be released hopefully next week.This will be the 1st time financial modeling with factual data and plant design, has been released to the market.I do feel this will be game changing,and will also put us on the radar of many,many of the majors.With further drilling over the next 6months,this will only strengthen the Jaguar assets,and as the company has written previously "we have yet to scratch the surface"remembering we have not drilled lower than 300m.We remain open at depth and along strike,not to forget the green field sights,which I feel may be very interesting indeed.
In Australia the average NI Sulphide starts at depths of 1000m and is mined mostly under ground.
The POX value added will be released in early April,should turbo charge the ROI,and again because of our presence in the Carajas,we have all the Hydro power,roads/transportation,skilled labour at our disposal.We are in one of the best mining infrastructures in the world.Not enough is known in Australia about the Carajas Province,and significance of the asset rich surrounds.
I believe this Jaguar Project ROI and overall profitability will be in the top echelon of any Ni Sulphide producer in the world.Lets hope I'm correct!!! I feel I will be correct!!!
3-Jambreiro Iron Ore,This is the huge sleeper,which currently has NO valuations in the current SP.Brokers reports recently also had no valuations for this project.
For those who have been around,would realise originally CTM was a IO play in Brazil many years ago,when the IO price was surging.Unfortunately the timing was out and the finance feel over at a the last hurdle.CTM invested $30million plus into this significant IO project.Please read the last December Quarterly report.With revenues of A$1.05 Billion and EBITDA of A$533 Million over an initial 18 year mine life ,this is a serious IO local play in the domestic market.I feel Management did not want to confuse the market,so all the focus was on "proven up" the potential Tier 1 Jaguar Ni Project.
I believe the timing is spot on now,to realise value for shareholders with this project.My calculations is that the project is worth a minimum of $250million at the IO current prices,and my valuations are heavily discounted by at least 30%.Remember that the FE is at +65% so this premium,and earns top $$$$
I feel the next month will be a game changer for CTM,and the investment world will standup and take notice of this little sleeping Humble Aussie Giant.
I have spent 100's of hours researching Ni stocks both in Oz and abroad,and my bullish opinion on CTM has not wavered,in fact I'm more bullish than ever,especially with "Green" focus globally and the massive "green"investments to make this world a better and cleaner world for the generations ahead.
Just though I would share my latest thoughts,and I guess many would ask where I see the SP,fortunately all my post previously have be proven to be correct,just good luck I feel.
I see the SP will be at $1.50 plus by June this year(That's if the market hasn't collapsed),and a further 12 months out,who knows,we may have been taking out by a huge player would be my tip!!!However it would great to see this through to production.
That's it for the Bald Guy,this is not advise,but makes great reading and lastly patience will be very very rewarded IMHO.
Let's hope I'm correct on some of the above.You won't here from me for a while now,Best of luck to all,The Story Has Just Begun !!!
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