COE

3.03%

17.0¢ cooper energy limited

AEMO reading, page-43

First 43 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
adasor

38 Posts.

2

04/03/21

20:02

Post #: 51529658
Share

Originally posted by cmonaussie ↑

OK so I thought I'd share some clarifying points which DM kindly answered for me. Questions were asked (and answered) in a way so as to not be specific enough to get into disclosure issues.

As you all know (by now hopefully) is that I consider the GSAs to be the greatest asset COE has. And hopefully in this next Qtrly and the June HY report we start to see to impact of them (and maybe talk less about OGPP and more about OP3D).

Therefore it is important to understand their structure and the gas market structure for ECA ... so for reference (as a proxy) would be the earlier post showing the AEMO graph of peak demand. Just as important is to understand our buyer's objective with their GSA. Our customers are large utilities (e.g. Origin/AGL who would have more seasonal to their demand) and large industrial users (e.g. Visy). Also worth noting is VIC has more seasonality than NSW.

One of the key flexibility factors within a GSA is the"load factor" flexibility. Zero (0%) flexibility means a 100% load factor with the customer takes the same volume each day and every day over the term of the contract. More oriented towards the large industrial gas consumer. With flexibility of 10% (and assume the volume commitment was 20TJ/d) means the customer can nominate between 18 - 22 TJ/d and to remain within the GSA. This variability is more suited to a utility. It is common to have a maximum (obviously as their is plant capacity to consider) but not common to have a minimum. It should also be obvious that flexibility has a price attached to it (fixed volume every day is a cheaper contract).

This notion of flexibility has to fit within the customer's T-o-P commitment ... which is an ANNUAL volume amount and is not typically seasonally adjusted (that's what the flexible load factor is for). So if the GSA was for 10PJ per annum with a T-o-P commitment of 90%, then they must take at least 9PJ. If they have taken less, say 8PJ, then they pay for the shortfall 1P now bring the them up to the minimum 9PJ of "pay" and take (the 1PJ) the gas at a later time. This is the customers responsibility to manage.

What COE has done on slide 5 of the HY presentation is to aggregate the (Sole only) GSAs and their T-o-P commitments.

Obviously the math can be easily done to figure out the average TJ/d thats left for the remainder of the year after the Mar Qtrly but my modeling and valuation is built on the annual GSA basis.

FWIW ... hope it helps

Expand

Great post, much appreciated. Hopefully the market starts to realise this too.

COE Price at posting: 31.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

EQN

Equinox unveils some of "world's highest" antimony grades at Alturas, Canada

Trump is President Again: What Does This Mean for Crypto?

UBI

Universal Biosensors flat despite fresh deal with US medical product distributor

Trump Victory Sends Bitcoin Surging Above $75K – Is $100K Next?

Palladium's the newest geopolitical hot commodity. But ASX exposure is limited

NMR

NMR picks up advanced gold projects in far north Queensland

ASX Market Open: Green Friday as markets digest Trump; China | 8 Nov 2024

AKN

AuKing Mining flags gold in rock chips on-site Saudi Shaib Marqan project

MKT

The ASX can overlook its Telecomm small-caps. Here’s one diversified brand with an international footprint

MMI

Metro Mining inks bauxite offtake contracts into 2026 with Chinese m

There are more pages in this discussion • 821 more messages in this thread...

First 43 Last

Add COE (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 17.0¢		Change 0.005(3.03%)		Mkt cap ! $448.8M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
17.0¢	17.5¢	16.8¢	$645.7K	3.796M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
19	806590	16.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
17.5¢	173333	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
18	776590	0.165
8	707596	0.160
3	69677	0.155
6	452500	0.150
5	352050	0.145

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.175	173333	2
0.180	479739	5
0.185	227049	4
0.190	229626	6
0.200	299395	6

Last trade - 16.10pm 08/11/2024 (20 minute delay)

COE (ASX) Chart

AEMO reading, page-43

Equinox unveils some of "world's highest" antimony grades at Alturas, Canada

Trump is President Again: What Does This Mean for Crypto?

Universal Biosensors flat despite fresh deal with US medical product distributor

Trump Victory Sends Bitcoin Surging Above $75K – Is $100K Next?

Palladium's the newest geopolitical hot commodity. But ASX exposure is limited

NMR picks up advanced gold projects in far north Queensland

ASX Market Open: Green Friday as markets digest Trump; China | 8 Nov 2024

AuKing Mining flags gold in rock chips on-site Saudi Shaib Marqan project

The ASX can overlook its Telecomm small-caps. Here’s one diversified brand with an international footprint

Metro Mining inks bauxite offtake contracts into 2026 with Chinese m

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

AEMO reading, page-43

Top Stories

Equinox unveils some of "world's highest" antimony grades at Alturas, Canada

Trump is President Again: What Does This Mean for Crypto?

Universal Biosensors flat despite fresh deal with US medical product distributor

Trump Victory Sends Bitcoin Surging Above $75K – Is $100K Next?

Palladium's the newest geopolitical hot commodity. But ASX exposure is limited

NMR picks up advanced gold projects in far north Queensland

ASX Market Open: Green Friday as markets digest Trump; China | 8 Nov 2024

AuKing Mining flags gold in rock chips on-site Saudi Shaib Marqan project

The ASX can overlook its Telecomm small-caps. Here’s one diversified brand with an international footprint

Metro Mining inks bauxite offtake contracts into 2026 with Chinese m

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News