Ann: H1 FY21 Results - Investor Call Presentation, page-37

You might be right; forecasting accurately is hard.

For what it is worth, absent external funding, my modelling has the net cash balance bottoming at around $0.5m at the end of December 2021, predicated on:

~$6.4m of Cash Receipts for the current calendar year (so a 35% increase on LTM to Dec 2020),

~$2.6m in Manufacturing & Opex and Payments for P&E, 39% higher than LTM to DH2020,

and

~$5.4m in CoDB (R&D, Marketing & Advertising, Staff and Admin & Corporate), 12% up from $4.8min LTM to Dec 2020, and roughly back to the level in LTM to DH2019. [*]


....for a total capital consumption of $1.60m for the year, compared to the 31 Dec 2020 Net Cash balance of $2.15m, so that would leave Net Cash at around $0.5m by the end of CY2021.


[*] I think that a $600k increase in CoDB on LTM to Dec 2020 is a conservative estimate; remember that CY2020 was a year in which significant austerity measures would have applied, so not only is there going to be a need to "normalise" the fixed cost base this year, but there is also likely to be an element of catch-up spend, as well as added investment in cost, e.g. in the form of the additional sales and marketing resources. For example, the new Chief Sales and Operating Officer was appointed on 15 Dec 2020. He, alone will account for almost half of that $600k increase this year, in terms of his direct and indirect cost to the business.

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