2021 prediction thread, page-329

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Treba

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05/03/21

13:07

Post #: 51549254
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Originally posted by alexei ii: ↑

@psi81 thx for the info. Just one point concerning permeability. Agree that formation stress numbers will give a better appreciation of individual permeability measurements, and that DSTs will give better indication than the packer tests. My understanding however is that anything over 10 mD, for gas production, is pretty good.

In answer to your question re tech staff. I think they're a bit light on, and use consultants and in country (local Mongolian) folks. The Covid business no doubt hampered the ability to use expat staff on site. In a recent announcement they heralded the entry to the team of a mud logger - I was surprised to hear they did not use one until now, knowing how important it is to have competent/experienced well site geo's to capture key data during drilling.

Horizontal drilling with fracking along the horizontal could also yield pretty good results.

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Qteq were involved previously

Originally posted by psi81: ↑

Thanks, that's a good summary. Those other permeabilities look a lot closer to what I would expect in Mongolia. I'm going to hazard a guess that the other tests in Nomgon-2 were less than 10mD and probably mostly less than 5mD.

Basically the net coal is fantastic, 100% saturation is great, the gas content, depth, ash, moisture and gas composition are all acceptable, though more testing is required on all of them, and the gas composition in particular. I assume the other gas is mostly CO2, which can be highly variable and 81% CH4 is pushing the limit of what you want.

So the permeability is the only real concern. The "Perm * height" number is a number that's used in Qld and those numbers are very low by Walloons standards, even the 640. But if I'm understanding correctly there are only two wells with perm tests in a permit the size of Belgium with multiple probable coal-bearing sub-basins that haven't even been drilled at all yet - so the chances are pretty good there will be some permeability somewhere, they just need to find it. It took quite a few tries to find the sweet spots in Qld too, the first drilling was in the early 90s and it wasn't until the early 2000s that people began to believe it could work.

One other point relevant to permeability - these depths are probably too shallow to frac the wells, unless there is something funky going on with the stress regime. So fracs are probably not an option, at least at this location. Might be a suitable target for shallow horizontal wells, like Comet Ridge's Mahalo project. The first Mahalo horizontal well was only about 200m vertical depth, these Nomgon wells are about 300m to top coal so could be an option. They were a real game-changer at Mahalo.

Does anyone know who the senior technical staff are at this company? Geologists and reservoir engineers?

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