Ann: FY20 Results Investor Presentation, page-9

There may be one factor you are downplaying or ignoring.

As I understand it, the median amount of stay in nursing homes - 'high care' sections - is allegedly nine months.

With the attention given to COVID-19, facilities have been (and are) devoting greater attention to matters such as hygiene, social distancing and mask wearing than in normal times. This may have partly contributed to lower overall community death rates even though most of us don't end up in aged care when we advance in years. (A dated statistic was that only 15 per cent of the community moves into such a 'home' - perhaps with increasing lifespans, it has risen).

Similarly, in the wider community, greater attention to hand hygiene may have been a factor in the much lesser 'flu season' in 2020. On top of that more of us received a shot. At one Priceline pharmacy at which I tried to book for same in mid-2020, there were no appointments available for a couple of weeks, so I had to search for another that had vacancies. This has never previously been problematical.

I don't disagree that relatives of the bereaved being more able or willing to pay for expensive caskets and coffins, and similarly availing of add-on services such as catering at the funeral home are very important for IVC. With some states restricting funeral attendees to 10, this hit IVC hard.

But I'd still submit shareholders will see an increase in community deaths in 2021 or 2022 compared to 2020. We'll have to wait to see who's correct, but I can't specify any percentage uplift.