FFX 0.00% 20.0¢ firefinch limited

Ann: 2.2 Million Ounce Resource Estimate Transforms Morila, page-213

  1. 320 Posts.
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    They have addressed in recent announcements that the number of repairs required to get the plant back up and running is much smaller than initially thought, Euroz has not updated their report factoring this in hence this $60m refurb bill is nonsense. The company has $30m in the bank to fix any current issues and is bringing in more money every day from the tailings operations.

    During the recent site visit from the Mali Minister for Mines mentioned supporting the company in its growth and hinted at resolving the tax bill dispute, additionally, Barrick has expressed support for the dispute being bogus. In the initial tax dispute announcement, they also mentioned the existing tax credits the company has ARE valid hence we will likely come out of that dispute with more "money" in the pocket.

    Now looking at the company from a gold financial perspective. Let's do a conservative financial analysis and assume that of the 2.2m oz resource estimate only 1.5m oz is converted into actual gold produced during the lifetime of the mine. They will likely operate at their historic AISC of $1,000USD/oz if the long-term gold price during operations is $1,500USD/oz this results in net profits of $750,000,000USD ~ $1B AUD.

    One can play around with these values to test worst-case and best-case scenarios to get an idea of how likely this company is going to perform over the next 10 years, unless gold drops to over 10-year lows of $1000USD/oz (basically impossible and likely to collapse most gold companies around the globe) the company is going to be trading at multiples of its current market cap.

    With the current market cap of $152m AUD assume gold and lithium are split evenly which is a reasonably fair assumption given the NPV of Goulamina, this means the market values the gold operations at $76m ie Disallowed when the switch to milling begins within the next 6 months and production of 150koz a year begins.

    The reality is long term AISC is likely to be closer to $900-$950USD/oz, the resource is likely to continue to grow consider Koting is not factored in and neither is that Pit5 resource along with other future resources. There is minimal overburden with all the existing resources lowering the AISC to these levels. Gold is likely to stay around $1700-$1600USD/oz so assuming this existing resource of 2.2Moz is converted into ounces.
    Likely Best Case Scenario (AISC = 900-950, Gold = 1700-1600)
    1.43B - 1.76B USD = 1.98B - 2.44B AUD ( 26-32x)
    Likely Worst Case Scenario (AISC = 1000-1050, Gold = 1200-1300)
    330M - 660M USD = 458M - 916M AUD (6-12x)
    The Worst Case Scenario (AISC = 1100-1150, Gold = 1200-1300 [gold will not drop below 2013-2019 stable price range])
    110M - 440M USD = 152M - 611M AUD (2-8x)

    Of course this doesn't factor in every aspect of the operations and other financial tools to assess value such as NPV, but it also doesn't factor in Koting, Pit5, Tax credits and finding additional resources nearby.
    Would be a real shame to only get 2x my investment from this price point but could still be worse. Good thing Goulamina exists to push that multiplier up a lot further. Lithium Spod price almost hitting double the operating cost per Kg of Spod produced at Goulamina, must be looking very attractive considering EV adoption is still in its infancy.

    The fundamentals are simple hence why I continue to top up on the dips and will continue to do so until the company reaches maturity.
    All IMHO DYOR and see the facts of the company yourself. It is very compelling.
 
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