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78.0¢ avz minerals limited

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setfire2thehive

3,944 Posts.

12572

09/03/21

08:30

Post #: 51615347
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Originally posted by setfire2thehive ↑

Whatever it is, it's 1 of 4 material pieces of information to which shareholders can expect this month. Followed by a pretty busy April/May.

As i mentioned previously, securing of the tin offtakes and secondly the remaining spodumene offtakes changes the optic for avz as far as the market will be concerned. Shifting from a token 30% offtake was enough for the market to sit up but i don't necessarily thought to be too serious.

As each of these offtakes roll in, a large % of purported financial figures in the DFS come to life. You then have financiers feeling much more secured to sign on the dotted line when you can say we have 100% of all Tin and 100% of all SC6 by way of binding offtake agreement. This is substantially more powerful a message than saying we have 30% done and hope to have the rest sorted. So in 4 weeks time the conversation is very different. Secondly, as i have touched on offtakes are significant step in de-risking of the project. IMV you're MC moves towards the NPV projected in it's studies. The % of which is trades at is a function of likelihood of success. AVZ has 3-4 material bits of info which will de-risk the project and bump the % to which the current MC trades at in relation to it's NPV.

But it doesn't end there as in april/may/june we will see the fruits of the wedge drilling leverage those NPV figures higher again. Further project acquisition also in discussions and maybe moving to 90% again pushes the bottom line even higher. Pretty unique situation to be really pulling on both fronts and over the space of 2-3 months.

Finally and most importantly, it was a deadline set and a deadline met. If the AVZ team can stay true to their word and begin to meet and nail these deadlines they have set it may well very be the first time in a number of years they've been able to do so. In turn, may very well convince a few of the sceptics (myself included). Imperative to change the market outlook regarding them as a professional outfit. Meeting these deadlines may be the first steps in convincing the market that not only is the project the real deal, maybe the team running it is finally gaining traction and understanding the mechanics of what's involved and what pushed timelines do for reputation.

Looking forward to the announcement, but reminding myself its 1 of maybe 5/6 incredibly company changing announcements which we could expect. And as I said last week, pennywise and pound foolish to be selling now, or on any of the upcoming news. Usually I'm first to admit that most news is priced in and when it's expected it doesn't move the S/P. The difference with offtakes is that it is not a drill results whereby it literally takes time and money to make happen, an offtake requires the other party to get on board and IMO market would not have priced in them to genuinely achieve them so major potential for a re-rate on the back of all these news announcements.

Ultimately, this paves the way for finance to occur and garner the market will place a higher premium here now with that looking more and more likely. Considering i hadn't bought shares for almost 9 months last week was apparently not a bad point for a long like me to increase the exposure.

best of luck everyone and looking forward to the next few months.

SF2TH

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Also, spodumene up again. now at $500USD/t. (remembering this is typically linked back to hydroxide and carbonate prices with a lagged pricing mechanism so will rise even when hydroxide/carbonate plateau.
hydroxide up to $10300 USD/t
Carbonate at highest prices since mid/late 2018. at $12700 USD/t.

Shoe is on the other foot for lithium developers.

SF2TH

AVZ Price at posting: 20.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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