Ann: Iron Ridge reaches steady-state production, page-90

Rod-ders
There are many moving parts in a commodity export business. A couple of things to consider when forecasting the forward cash position
FOB sales are generally covered by a letter of credit and before the ship sales up to 90% of the value of the cargo is received. Usually 10% is retained by the buyer pending final disport analysis and price finalisation etc etc. So there is a lag on a portion of the sales, say 4 weeks. For us this will constitute negative WIP and will be sunk as we reach steady state.
The much maligned CR will have been designed to cover start up and steady state costs plus a contingency. The $10M at the end of Dec would be more than adequate to cover this and the working capital until cash flows. But lets assume she is all gone now.
Contractors will be on 30 days from receipt of invoice at end of month. So a positive WIP to offset the negative WIP above
The upshot is on the balance the cash in the bank will be the cash we receive from the shipments. Lets say 210 000 dmt at $A100/t margin. I am putting it out there we will have about $A19M in the bank at the end of March. Plus by the time the 4C is issued another A$5.5M will have been deposited.

What do you reckon ROCK-STAR?