Australia's Gas Future

Hello!

I've been reading the BPH forums since the start of the year and after lots of research decided to invest.
This forum can be a great source of information, and being new to the stock market really helped kick start my own research into certain stocks.

I quickly learnt that some post to benefit themselves but others genuinely provide fantastic information to help people come to their own decision.

I greatly appreciate everything i learnt from those that took the time to post very in depth DD and enjoyed some excellent discussions (some not so excellent).



Lately with everyone waiting on a decision from Keithy, the BPH forum has become a bit of a shit show.

So i thought i would start something constructive and asked myself a few questions.
What would happen if PEP11 was declined?
How would it affect Australia's gas usage in the future?
Do we currently have enough projects that could supply Australia until gas is no longer a thing?

Simply put the world would be better if we didn't need gas but we live in reality.
Reality shows that we need gas and will continue to need gas for decades to come.

With many gas alternatives already being developed it is not enough to sustain humans way of life. Simple as that, like it or not. As future PM Keithy said there will be no blokes with wheelbarrows running down the street asking for your gas appliances. What's that you have a gas oven? Cant have that mate!
It will be a long transition moving entire countries off fossil fuel altogether.

How big of a deal is PEP11?

PEP11 "has been assessed to contain up to 13.2 Tcf (P50 or 'best estimate' level) prospective recoverable gas resources adjacent to the major population region of Sydney and excellent port and power generation infrastructure."

If drilling went 100% perfectly that would be worth roughly 40 billion $ (please correct me if i'm wrong)

According to Worldometers in 2015 Australia consumed 1,406,950 mmcf of gas which = 1.41 Tcf

They also state "Australia holds 70 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proven gas reserves as of 2017, ranking 27th in the world and accounting for about 1% of the world's total natural gas reserves of 6,923 Tcf. Australia has proven reserves equivalent to 43.9 times its annual consumption. This means it has about 44 years of gas left (at current consumption levels and excluding unproven reserves)."

It is important to note Australia is one of the leading gas exporters.

While being able to harvest 13.2 tcf of gas, reduce costs and create jobs doing it would be an obvious win, It feels to me that if PEP11 were to disappear it wouldn't be that big of a blow to Australia's gas industry. The big blow comes from the message being sent by declining this exploration when the company has followed all the rules and poured millions of $ into it. Especially if our gas supply is starting to dry up and considering how long the process takes from concept to actual drilling.

That message would have a bigger impact than the loss of the gas.


I have seen a few articles showing that our gas production is in decline and wont be enough to sustain us for 5+ years but would love some more info on that.

I believe PEP11 will be approved but it would not be the end of gas availability in Australia if it were to be declined.
Why deny gas production on home soil and start importing gas? Why deny this exploration permit but then look to grant another in 5 years when we need it?
It would be a win for the economy and the people if it were to be approved.
If it were denied it would send a strong message to future resource exploration in Australia.
Could we survive without PEP11? Yes. Would it be wise to decline it then? No.

Very important to remember that there is a chance this could be declined. Stranger things have happened. You should prepare mentally for that.
With that said through all my research i've become confidant in my educated gamble, and will sleep well up until the decision regardless of the outcome.

Hopefully this one makes us rich

All just my opinion and wish the best for everyone on their investments.

First time having a proper go at posting some information so cheers for reading!
Feel free to correct or add to anything.