I think the negotiation should be more directed at the potential impact to the either of the two incumbents.
As an example;
The marketplace is forecast to be 10b in the next few years. Given Medtronics already holds 60% of the market, If they gained ownership or licensed our TAVR device, then quickly gaining 90% market share would not be unreasonable. That would be a $3b annual revenue increase. However also, if they lost the negotiation to their opposition it could drive a drop very quickly to potentially just 10% of the market or a $5b reduction in annual revenue.Their market cap of 160.16b is currently 5.73 times revenue, so the dollar impact of a $3b gain or $5b loss would be a market cap gain of $17.2b or a market cap loss of $28.7b.
So a potential impact to Medtronic shareprice, shareholders, directors, etc of $45.9b Market cap
As owners of this technology if we can’t negotiate a licence to take 20% of that $45.9 billion, then we should be disappointed. If we need to sell the whole business then a substantial figure on top of $9.18b would be required to include the addition unrealised potential of the Adapt technology.
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