Lol. I read Dr T's post and before I even read your post decided that I better lift probability for Pillar 1 to 15% from 10%. This puts it at mid-Phase 1 based on the criteria explained in the linkedin post. Safety is already known.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/5-step-approach-early-stage-biotech-drugs-valuation-riccardo-lowi/
I will lift it to 20% once RAC have their own preclinical data for FTO.
On this basis my calculation of fair value for buyout using risked NPV has been moved up to $83 (from $75).
Pillar 1 - FTO (new thread), page-438
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