@BaliHai Great post, quality stuff and Some interesting ideas. A few concerns crept in over the last 12 months beyond the obvious, but as you say, providing comfort about the new BFS metrics and revised debt funding is the clear and present market concern.
I had hoped YS contacts might be able to replace Taurus with a lender demanding fewer hooks and barbs (eg the LOM production royalty in addition to interest and other fees), that might explain the delays. Early days after NAIF dished STA $150M I thought Bruce Mac might have gone back to beg for more porridge, but it didn;t happen, so now a Chinese JV has been consummated I'm less optimistic. Sometimes first in isn;t best dressed, but very happy to be proven wrong.
If what you hope comes to pass regards NAIF and reduced contingency that's obviously fantastic. Swapping out a Zircon Processing pant worth $52M for a LTR plant costed at $43M in 2017 (just off the 2016 resources bust with ultra competitive pricing) given some non-nag processing is still likely required, looks a wash to me. My concern is WA's huge cost inflation in the resource industry, especially new project builds. Talk is all over town that cost inflation is running rampant. Whatever tricks the two-Bruces have up their sleeves, can't see how they can doge a serious percentage cost increase to the ~$400M capex, especially running with a fixed price EPC contract. GR Engineering must be busy as a one armed Baghdad brickie, question is how fat do their margins need to be and still agree build TB for us?
So, we have a side bet to interest to the thread. I'm going to see your "there is now no need for further equity raisings" and raise you "SFX will need a miracle not to need a CR being responsible for the first $13M of equity over-run, 50% of any extra, and requirements for two years corporate costs at minimum". The stage is set. SFX have blown out last years guidance for JV consummation/BFS/Financing by 6-9 months... the market waits to see if the delay portends good news or bad...
Cheers
(20min delay)