Just to clarify a few points.
- DBCT : What indication do you have that updates are not coming in the near future? It seems to me more like a case of people thinking time goes faster than it does, if that makes sense. Everyone is so anxious for the news that it seems like ages, even though we knew it would be at least June before we have any real announcements.
- WestNet Rail : The news is just that we probably won't be getting external funding from the government to finance repairs and other capital works. Surely the only two options in that scenario are neutral, which we are seeing, or positive, which it would be if we got some of that cash. Unfortunately the way the market is reacting to everything, it will probably have a negative effect, but it's irrational because gaining government support would not have been factored into the share price.
- PD Ports : Again, discussions are ongoing and it's difficult to see that the consortium will be allowed to tear up their contracts part way through, the government is getting involved and there are also external buyers for the 78% of steel production, meaning it's unlikely the plant will be shut down. If it does, this still only represents a fraction of PD Ports, which while certainly not negligible, would not deplete revenue too badly.
- BBP : Not really relevant, although we are always going to be dragged down by sentiment towards the Babcock and Brown name, it's still a completely different entity, with different management.
It's certainly not rainbows and butterflies, but there is light at the end of the tunnel, it's still priced for failure, which will be extremely unlikely if this sale of DBCT goes through for a reasonable price.
But there are risks, apart from those outlined above, there may be further dilution from SPARCS, although probably minimal again, or the Euroports drama ending unfavourably, or any other unforeseen complications.
Apart from the 8% dilution, nothing has really changed from when it was 19 cents, try not to get too caught up in the daily price movements and using them as a judge for the viability of the business, look at the fundamentals, make a decision and stick with it, then evaluate them again when substantial news comes out.
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