why fertiliserprices are decoupling from grain, page-5

Have to disagree with you there nergee. Acres are not going up.

Urbanisation in China is consuming vast tracts of farmland and generally the most productive being coastal high rainfall. Desertification also occurring in China.

More farmers are prepared to fallow (this is where you don't plant a crop and conserve moisture for the following year) the riskier areas of their farming operations these days (eg frost prone, poor sandy soils, highly acidic, low soil moisture levels etc). Lack of credit is rationing land away from annual cropping and into opportunistic cropping especially in the marginal production areas (low rainfall), usually that will mean crops won't be financed unless good subsoil moisture is carried into the growing season. And the cost of that finance is generally the most expensive on the market to still reflect high risk profiles to lenders.

I would be looking at what is happening in South America and Eastern Europe in particular for direction in cereal grain pricing. These are the areas where credit rationing has hit hardest and are generally large cereal grain producers.

Fertilizer and grain prices have decoupled somewhat when you see the rallies we have enjoyed recently in soy, wheat, sugar, cotton, palm oil and canola yet fertilizer prices have stagnated at multi year lows ...