New York Times article, page-15

@Iseki - If you check out the company presentation from late last December - slide 23, the final selling price is anticipated as being A$50. This is probably the expected reimbursement price as well. Not sure what share of the A$50 goes to the path labs. It's just a guess that the kits COGS is $20 - paid away to the contract manufacturer. Expect that COGS to halve or so with significant volume. So initially I expect revenue to RHY of between A$30-40 per test or a gross profit of A$10-20.

Europe is a bigger opportunity and should get approval before the US. I believe more trials will be required in the US by the FDA but not by the EMEA. Study 7 should be enough for Europeans. There are 230m Europeans in the 50-74 age bracket so assuming governments/insurers want tests biennially like Oz, the market size is 115m tests per annum. About 2/3rds of this number are non compliant or unscreened using FIT (slide 20). So lets say 38m are actually tested. You can use your own assumptions to work through market share, rate of adoption, increased compliance ( I believe this is very important) and also dropping the age government paid tests start at, to, say 45.

I don't yet own this stock as valuation work is still ongoing but like the opportunity. Love to see how other HC members value it. I am also very unsure how much equity needs to be raised to get to sustainable profits.