Ignoring the 'in between the lines' signs that a big order/partner is coming in the next few months... I was more interested and encouraged by the 'on-the-ground' feedback Fluence were receiving.
MABR being the new technology looking to break into the water industry was always going to face an uphill battle. The issue for me was would Fluence be able to push MABR fast enough into the market to become profitable, before it ran out of money.
Firstly the Ivory Coast has given me significant confidence in the ability for Fluence to ride out the next couple of years with minimal dilution and/or taking on substantially more debt. I suspect we may need more funding, but that largely depends on how quickly market adoption improves in mid/end of 2021. That being said, I accept dilution or debt as an inevitable piece of investing in a company that has yet to become self sufficient (consistent positive cash flow positive quarters), and it's less of an issue here because I believe that positive cash flows are within reach in 2022.
But if I try focus on what I believe is important, then if Richard is correct in saying that MABR is no longer seen as a 'new' tech and has become 'accepted best in-class/next generation tech', then that is all I really need to know. The number of MABR installations is a good sign, which show that repeat orders are indeed happening... but for me, the Philippines water authority contacting Fluence to get in touch with non-conforming entities was a key statement for me. When the water authority of a country is impressed enough about your technology to push it as a best-in-class solution, then I believe there is credence to what Richard is saying.
When MABR was chosen as the first waste-water plant in Cambodia... it shows that of all the technology available, both past and present... MABR won out and was able to bridge whatever existing gap that prevented a waste water plant being built in Cambodia... advancements such as MABR make waste water treatment more affordable and efficient, expanding its accessibility to regions previously unable to afford the infrastructure required to effectively treat waste water. This also adds credibility to what Richard is saying.
The beauty is that we are months away from getting a definitive answer on the topic of whether or not MABR has moved beyond early adoption, and into the early stages of mainstream adoption.
Negotiations with four Chinese national SOEs (where two have purchased pilots in Mar20 and May20) is where I believe we will see some significant inflexion points in the next few months. The China Rail and Three Gorges pilots are game-changers if they select Fluence's MABR... both from a sales point of view in the short term, but more importantly it will signal to the market that MABR has arrived. Like dominos the flow-on effect will be swift and somewhat unstoppable... and those focusing on the dollar figures of any new bulk orders will IMO be missing the bigger picture.
But for now, words are indeed cheap... but I do place some weight on words that come from customers.
Goodluck all
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