Deadline for Novartis, page-145

"Negotiating with other big Pharma companies is stifled by this position also. Word gets out that MSB is looking to negotiate outside of Novartis and it will be hello $1 a share."

If word got out that we are negotiating with others our SP would sky rocket. Plenty of room for a better deal and MSB is in a far better position than we were when this deal was sighed. The Novartis deal as good as it sounded has already been discounted substantially as the COVD trial failed to impress. To add value to our SP MSC component we must wait for the NIH to release the results. This has huge revaluation potential as it also has implications for GVHD.

Consider the various components as a % of the current SP
CLBP is by far the strongest in my opinion , 50 % of the current SP could be attributed by market for this indication alone. I can not see any down side risk in the medium term. Upside will be modest as further development is announced.

CHF must also have a significant value being contributed to the SP. It would be better than half CLBP , 30%. like wise I see no down side short term however news of partnership and development would see a much larger SP gain potentially pushing its % component up equal to CLBP.

That leaves just 20% for the entire MSC portfolio, at peak SP last year this would have been close to 60%.
Yes we have immediate down side , very bad results from the ARDS trial that results in Novartis walking should only result in a long term decrease in % of SP of 10% or at todays price 23 cents.

Now consider the upside, COVID has lost interest in the market however I don't think it unreasonable to see the SP MSC component climb back up to more historical levels say 50% $ 3.80 . This is only considering the reinstatement of the current deal with Novartis. As we all know the implications of the ARDS results go far beyond the Novartis partnership.

The first sight of GVHD approval or any other modest income and we will be back over $5

Good luck all.