nothing like 10% or 20% chance of success, much lower.
We have suggestive nearology, gravity and EM maps, and surface geochem, but they can only ever be suggestive until drill testing.
Generally I would liken drilling for greenfields (brand new) discoveries to tattslotto. That's nothing MAN-specific, that's Australia-wide. Very high risk of not hitting a deposit, but very high reward if you do!
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