my bbi valuation / dbct sale flows, page-75

I'm confused...
Why does anyone in the entire world think DBCT has an EBITA of $201M in 2011?

I understand that the 2010 value of 216M was used (which is, of course, seemingly below expectations as well)... but can anyone explain why the OP has the spreadsheet showing an EBITA of $201M, compared to ABN Amros estimation of $240M?

Furthermore, why has the spreadsheet got accrued interest at 5c in May2009? Isn't it currently around 3c? (Moving to 4.35c at 30 June 2009). Or am I mistaken... (minor effect on the spreadsheet, but it just seems like misinformation).

I thought DBCT asset level debt was $1.97B, not $1.59B. Am I mistaken?

BBI bought NGPL at a very conservative 10.7X, and you think that it would be sold at a 10X multiple? Really? Honestly? You don't think that is a pessimistic, unrealistic, view? Melua's estimate of 11.7X really seems more approrpiate.

I'm really struggling, to be honest, to belive PD Ports has a negative equity value. You've actually given it a multiple of 7? Doesn't Corus make up 30% of the revenue? Can you please explain how you have came to your EBITA for PD Ports? Have you 100% factored in Corus failing? Have you took into account Tesco?

Again, I might be missing something... but how did you get your EBITA for Euro Ports? Are you assuming negative EBITA growth in 2011? Why? If Euro Ports is "saleable", why has it been assigned a multiple of only 8? Wouldn't 8 imply that it wasn't really sellable?

Also worth considering, using very conservative figures... it's still a 42c evaluation! What a bargain at current SP...

Furthermore if you *JUST* change NGPL mutliple to 11.7, it goes up by 15c to 57c instead of 42c... or over +33%.

To BEPPA conversion... you guys are all running scenarios (10Bn, etc) on the share price remaining similar in 2012.

If the SP was, say, 50c in 2012 (completly reasonable!), BBI could easily:
A: Offer to extend BEPPA to Bank Rate + 5% for 3 years.
B: Quite possibly get a bank loan, to roll the BEPPA debt into debt.

It is quite possible that half BEPPA holders would convert (clearly a number I just pulled out...). If BBI was forced to issue BBI securities for these half...

778*50%*120c/50c is 933M BBI issued.

Current shares on issue are 3Bn, so a 33% dilution if half converted... BBI would 'lose' $467M in debt, so the medium + long term effect on SP should be (much) less than 33%. (Short term, more sell pressure may temporarily push down the price, but that wouldn't be based on fundamentals, so shouldn't hold medium or long term).

Having said that, to state categorically that BBI won't have $1.20 * $778M * 50% ($467M) in cash in *OVER* 3 years time is a bit much. Is it REALLY that unlikely?

and, ofcourse, the bank debt is completly feasible in *OVER* 3 years time!