EMvision Research Notes, page-930

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Soul13

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93

04/04/21

01:06

Post #: 52240434
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Originally posted by vmos: ↑

Hi Vintage - the total potential world market for stroke scanners is shown in EMV presentations. The latest on 17th March 2021 showed 19580 stroke wards and 123,200 ambulances giving a total of 142,780.

Now being cautious I assumed the total maybe was a bit optimistic or perhaps not all stoke wards or ambulances would buy a scanner. So I rounded this total down to 100,000. I assumed the life span of the scanner at 10 years, so if we can even things out that equates to 10,000 units sold per year. I know lots of units will be rented and this will decrease revenue in early years but increase profits in later years. Also as Eire2011 has pointed out I did not include consumables. I wanted to keep the sums simple.

I was an engineer in an earlier life so I applied the engineer safety factor of 2 to the 10,000 estimate. That is how I arrived at the seemingly low sales estimate of 5000 scanners per year.

Also I consider my assumed PER of 25 to be low. Probably a PER of over 30 would be more accurate but I wanted to be cautious. So for the time being I will stick to my forecast share price of $25 sometime in calendar 2023.

You mentioned an earlier valuation done by milk. I could not find it. Could you be kind enough to give me a clue where I might find it.

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Hi, Vmos
thanks for sharing, I Would love that to happen. However, in my opinion your number is a bit too optimistic. There are couple reasons for that, one is we plan to get FDA approval sometime in 2022 if I remember correctly? It could take time to get approval in other regions. Plus, when new tech come to the market I think it takes time for the market to adopt it. So I would not expect to sell too many devices in the first year after FDA approval.
In addition, it also takes time for the scaling of production. That's a lot of work for a medical devices company.
I believe the potential for EMV is enormous, but I just think it would require some time to get there. Happy to be wrong though

EMV Price at posting: $2.61 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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