There was a great episode on Four Corners, Mondays 8.30pm on ABC TV + iview.
https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/fired-up/13299104The main crux that I gathered from it was that multiple people in the show suggested the Government's "Gas led recovery" was possibly influenced by donors. If that were true, then that is bad for PEP-11. If the Government are out to support their donors (as the show is trying to suggest), then unless Advent and it's associated companies are political donors (which I don't believe they are), then it would be bad for the Government's donors to have a new competitor enter the Gas market.
Hence, we have possibly the true motive surrounding the Prime Minister Scott Morrison's comments, whereby he is protecting his donors from competitors by not endorsing PEP-11:
JOURNALIST: Do you support the extension of the petroleum exploration licence of the coast of New South Wales?
PRIME MINISTER: We're talking about the one down on the...
JOURNALIST: Between Port Stevens and Sydney?
PRIME MINISTER: Yeah, yeah. No.
JOURNALIST: You don't support the extension?
PRIME MINISTER: No.
JOURNALIST: Prime Minister, can I just clarify the response that you gave regarding PEP11, Keith Pitt is currently considering an application to extend the offshore gas exploration license between Port Stephens and Sydney, are you saying that you don’t support the extension of that license?
PRIME MINISTER: I am. Pretty clearly.
JOURNALIST: That will make some of our tourist operators very happy.
PRIME MINISTER: It's going to make me very happy. I think that's the right decision.
JOURNALIST: Will you be pushing Keith Pitt to make this decision soon?
PRIME MINISTER: It's a matter the government's working through, but I'm happy to answer the question - you asked me what my view is. I've told you fairly plainly. I tend to be a fairly plain-speaking person.
https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-tomago-nsw
This never made sense to me until now. It is pretty clear to me that it isn't just because he is on a Coastal electorate, it is possibly also for donations.
Bruce Robertson: "Ever since the export plants started up and the export companies decided price gouge the Australian domestic consumer which they'd been doing very consistently ever since".
...
Michael Brissenden: "Why do you think the Federal Government is so fixated on a Gas led recovery then?"
Bruce Robertson: "Donations".
Michael Brissenden: "Political donations from fossil fuel companies is that it?"
Bruce Robertson: "Yes, it is pretty simple, it is pretty transparent in Australia what's is going on at the moment and that's what's happening it has massively serious consequences and this is the tragic thing that is happening in Australia".
Tony Wood: "We shouldn't be be offering a false hope that cheap gas in the answer, that cheap gas that I have been talking about will never come back again. This is a geological statement, this is an economic statement, it's not an ideological statement, we have basically run out of cheap gas."
Michael Brissenden: "...Any increased gas activity is financially good for you"
Andrew Liveris: "yeh so, both are director roles, check the director pay, there is no stock involved apart from the stock I bought in Worley to show good faith".
...
Andrew Liveris: "...... we can get around $6 delivered on the East Coast".
Kevin Gallagher: "... between 6 and $9 is the range of prices, I have publicly stated that I believe is the sustainable sort of range for Gas prices on the East Coast."
https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/fired-up/13299104
Conclusion: The possibility of the Liberal Government protecting it's donors from BPH's PEP-11 project is a serious possibility, I encourage anyone interested in doing their own research to check out this 40+minute Four Corners episode.
We now have two motives behind Scott Morrison not wanting to approve PEP-11:
1) They may lose votes up and down the East Coast of Australia due to approving the permit and
2) They will upset their bigger oil and gas donors as it opens the door to another potential competitor.
Additionally, the big gas players have officially laid out a $6-9/GJ price range. Andrew Liveris for example said "...... we can get around $6 delivered on the East Coast". https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/fired-up/13299104 This means that PEP-11 will most likely not be able to compete with $6/GJ potentially being delivered to Port Kembla or the Newcastle Terminal, therefore they have potentially already been priced out of the East Coast market.
Therefore, after reviewing this Four Corners episode, I would say the chances PEP-11 gets approved at all, have been reduced.
There is a possibility they flat out reject the application, get taken to court/the tribunal by Advent, and eventually lose/win the case (to avoid a decision before the election).
