where is my 1000, page-30

Wow this could be long. So many things I want to answer/say. I might try and go post to post starting from the one I've replied to.

SP - 'Just like you'll see all these posts telling us how smart they were to sell their gold shares just before a correction and how smart they were to then buy them back just before they started running again'

Well I've never done it before, so you wont find me getting excited until I've bought them back...preferably cheaper...

Would people come on here saying they gave up in panic and sold at lows? Well why not? Whats wrong with admitting losses? Its not like we dont ALL have them. Personally I've got nothing to hide. My nic basically being my name should tell you that.

Thing is I didn't sell out at the bottom. I held all the bloody way down and not just gold shares. I got out of some speccies early enough but that was just pocket change. I did however effectively double down. Not my proudest moment though. Some a bit too early before the bottom and some pretty soon after the bottom. It was a calculated gamble that thankfully paid off. Like I've said before that changed me.

SP - 'Because I may have a negative attitude towards a particular trading/investing strategy does not mean I have a negative attitude towards the people who are trying to carry out that trading strategy.'

Ok, all good, but my question is why would you have a negative attitude to any strategy? I'm open to anything that can make my trading more profitable.

As for telling porkies and big noting... If you and others think thats whats been going on I'd think that was a real shame. I share my analysis and opinions on here as we all do. Some right, some wrong. But I'm trying damn hard to take my directional bias out. When you look at the big picture factors (all the fundamentally bullish things for gold that we've discussed) it was hard to be anything but bullish for gold. But I've learnt that there are cycles and money flows and sector rotation in the market. In a way, selling the positions I have is kind of like reaching one of my goals. And I'm chuffed about that. If its come across as anything else then what I've written hasn't been able to convey what I have been meaning to.

Champ -
'What makes you think that Gold is going to drop?
When i say drop I mean in the 100's not 30 so what's your reasoning?'

This whole rally in equities and commods etc has had one source. A weakening USD. USD index weakened, commods up, AUD/USD up, GBP/USD up, its all been correlated to the weakening USD. If you ask me its been weakened intentionally so equities rally and the 'filth' (thanks BMD) can raise funds without ridiculous dilution.

The USD is now oversold on many indicators and time and JPM (who I think are the last to need to raise capital for a while) completed their raising a couple of days ago. Just like it seemed to me that the USD had topped as I said here, its seems that its around a short term bottom. In the link just above I even said 'The market will continue to rally, and bonds will continue to weaken, as long as the USD comes off'

'Do you think inflation is still far away?'

Inflation, I don't know how far away honestly (none of us do) but thats not important. Inflation expectations are appearing. Thats what will move asset prices that will benefit from inflation.

'Do you think that the US banking system is repaired?'

Champ, c'mon your talking to me like I'm some kind of nutter. Its in peices, it was insolvent but the scum that run the US has managed to feed it so much money that it may just survive. Think Japanese banks in the 90's and thats how they may be. Zombied for a number of years. Again though it doesn't really matter. Gold wen't down when banks were falling left right and center, so its not not a definitive price driver like the USD has been.

'Do you think that there is no such thing as immediate threat of currency devaluation?'

Absolutely, but things get overbought and oversold. I'm just trying to protect my capital while they move counter to the direction I had my money.


SP - 'Gold isn't even over US$1000 yet! The bull market in gold equities hasn't even started as far as I'm concerned.'

I completely agree.

'I also believe there will be nothing worse than selling out and then realsing I have been shaken out just as a huge upwards move in the price of gold and gold equities takes place.'

Yep, right again. But I've got no problem putting all 25 odd positions back on tommorrow if it seemed necessary. It would only cost $1000. In my holdings that was a 2c move on either MUN or IGR. Its nothing. I've not been 'scared off', I'm just trying to be objective. If I miss a move up, it is just an opportunity. If I catch a move down I lose real money (ok, ok fiat!). Remember I have twins and a wife that doesn't work as she looks after them. I'm the bread winner. Last year taught me to protect my capital.

'Having said that, of course I would have loved nothing better than to have sold out of everything in July last year and then bought back during the November/December lows.I would have been congratulating myself and felt like a genius'

Wouldn't we all..... Thing is, thats where I'm trying to get to, no, where I'm determined to get to.

'Gold equities will hit unimaginable highs in relation to the gold price.'

My thoughts haven't changed one single iota in that respect.

'I intend to be fully invested when that time arrives and so am not prepared to either be shaken out or bail out of my gold equities every time I suspect a correction may occur in the price of gold.'

Thats a bit rough. I intend to be fully invested at the time, even well before, but I have been neither 'shaken' out nor have I 'bailed' out. I have traded out and sometime around August depending on what happens, I will trade back in. But I am fully aware its going to easier said than done. I'm not stupid, just trying to improve my abilities.


Bug - RE the 'core' and 'trading' positions. I have been doing that with some shares for quite a while, but it just left me confused in a way. My thoughts and analysis had to keep jumping timeframes and I felt like it was actually detracting from performance. So now I'm focused on 1 timeframe and I feel like there's far more clarity in regards to what I'm trying to do. Not to say it will work, but it feels right so far.


Champ - re the trailing stops, I have found myself whipsawed too much. I have found over the last 3/4 months that selling into strength has been better for me.


Nothing has changed other than my approach which is as a result of what happened last year. I realised as the one who's bringing in the cash that I HAVE to protect my capital. If I don't, I'm looking for a job - in this environment. And theres NOTHING I want to do other than what I currently do, apart from going for a technical analyst position and believe me I've come across more hens teeth.

My bullishness towards gold has not changed in any timeframe other than the immediate 6-10 weeks and nor will it. The only reason it has changed in that timeframe is the fact that this entire rally in everything for the last few months has been due to the weakening USD. To me it seems over-extended. It all comes down to that really.

Good thing is, if I'm wrong in the short term, I won't lose any money :)

Ciao and may the Gold bull be good to ALL of us.