Under the Sole GSA, there are multiple companies with agreements which add up to 54PJ/pa. Until they have bought over and above their share of the 54PJ, the cost of gas will be at ~$8 then spot for anything greater. None of them are even close.
Also the nameplate of Orbost is 68PJ. It was envisage the gas produced would be over and above the required 54 PJ and for the excess gas to be sold on market to other companies at spot mainly during the winter when demand peaks. Also hopefully to the GSA contracted companies at the back-end of the CY when the GSA companies require more than their share of the 54. APA and COE are madly scrambling for that to be a reality.
I think it is important to note COE never expected to sell 68PJ from Sole/Orbost in a given year even if the plant was at nameplate until possibly 2023 when the forecasted gas supply shortfall occurred. So the loss in revenue isn't a straight 68PJ minus GSA 54PJ/49PJ (minimum) multiplied by spot.
To confused the issue, part of the current sales from Casino/Henry are covered by a GSA. The rest is sold at spot.
Clear as mud.
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