rio - bhp jv on iron ore, page-3

unfortunately i have mixed feelings about the deal. Here a few select thoughts

1. could be good or bad for iron ore price in general, greater control on supply means better prices could be achieved but then again more efficient operations means lower operating costs therefore potential to flood the market with low cost ore

2. With BHP/RIO joining forces it means less competition for UMC if a takeover was to happen. You mention that there will be greater pressure for the govt force third party access on the majors...haha... still a long term possibility...not going to happen in the short term and not without a fight. Though possibility RIO/BHP come up with their own conditions for rail/port access to get the deal over the line. UMC probably in the best position of the juniors given grades/proximity. Still questionable about what volume they will allow if at all.

3. China probably more interested than ever in iron ore acquisitions. Maybe a chance they take out a few of the juniors with the aim of becoming a significant player themselves(probably not allowed without an Australian partner... FMG?).can provide the finance, FMG provide the infrastucture (a possible 50% sale of FMGs rail assets, gives FMG cash, they form a 50% JV for developing new iron ore mines).

4. problem now is time IMO. How long is it going to take for the BHP/RIO deal to complete. GOing to be a lot of opposition again from China. Less chance of someone having a go at UMC or for UMC to get a rail deal while all this is going on in the background. UMC is the worst performer in my portfolio in recent months and unfortunately represents most of my portfolio. How long is everyone willing to wait?