prl2 valuations

I was looking at LKO's AGM presentation to try and figure out what Triffon and Gangell might be valued at.

It appears Trifon and Gangell have combined around 950BCF (Wombat is 700BCF) so its 1.35x the size of Wombat, based on that and using 30c a GJ they should get 1.35x Wombat valuation = $90m - $120m

Another point of interest is that most CSG transactions in Qld and NSW have been done at $3 per 2P so really 30c per 2P seems ridiculously cheap, however this is Vic not Qld and its tight gas not CSG, but I would have thought something like 90c 2P was more appropriate per 2P

Using 90c/2P we get $420m - $624m

So basically 3 of LKO's 6 gas fields would be worth mean $175m = 4cents LKO at 30c GJ very conservative to a more takeover target sale value of say 90c GJ which is a mean value of $522m = 12c LKO


Please note these are my estimates and calculations only at the end of the day LKO is worth what a buyer be it retail, institutional or an Oil company is willing to pay for it, I'm just trying to highlight the potential blue sky





Image 1 (Page 6 AGM pres) shows the location of LKO's RL2 (note this is one of many leases they have) and its clear to see on RL2 that there are 6 seperately identified and mapped Gas Fields with a 7th and much larger BARAGAWANATH gas field

It also shows the location of the Alinta Gas Hub and the Longford Gas facility

Image 2 (page 12 AGM pres) shows the value range for Wombat

Image 3 (page 13 AGM pres) shows the estimated reserves of gas for the other fields