NTU v. LYC v. the rest, page-12

Hi @Deanopig,

I don't think share price is a good basis for company comparisons, if it were so all companies would be frantically consolidating their shares, just as LYC did in 2017. If NTU were to do a 100-1 consolidation tomorrow valuing their shares A$4.10, would that make the NTU almost as valuable as LYC? Market cap is a better measure, LYC at A$4.94b is currently valued at about 25x NTU at A$198.5m.

For an investor LYC is a far safer bet than NTU, but for a speculator NTU has greater potential for capital gain. Which one do you think is the more likely to be a Disallowed in the next 5 years? NTU at $0.41c or LYC at $54.80? Obviously NTU being a speccy is also more likely to be worth nothing by that time whereas LYC is unlikely to go broke, but that’s the difference between speculation and investment.

As a speculator in the REE market I am interested in companies that have the potential for exponential growth in the medium to long term. I believe that NTU has potential to achieve this given they are a long way closer to achieving commercial production than any other listed REE developers; NTU have developed a facility capable of producing REO carbonates in substantial (+200t) quantities, no debt, a tier 1 offtake partner and have produced a high value HRE carbonate product.

Obviously NTU has plenty of challenges on which you can DYOR, but most of their issues are well known and therefore can be addressed, whereas most other aussie REE developers are still at the ‘unknown unknowns’ stage.