Those poor people waiting on the sideline for the big collapse are mighty frustrated, as was I. Best to just go with the flow. Get out of the sharemarket as a safety measure if its heading down due to widespread financial market turmoil, but meanwhile make hay while the sun shines on us piglets.
The most likely scenario for the US is a long term stagnating economy due to the need to deleverage but a refusal by the authorities to let it happen rapidly (like Japan since early 1990s). The US will be forced to consume a lot less and import less. Something similar will happen in most of Europe unless they have revolutions (could occur in some east european states) in which case there will be an conomic collapse.
One of the biggest concerns for Australia is the health of the Chinese economy. It is not clear that the lending practices of its banks are sound and they could in fact have similar problems to the US. This is in addition to the need to adjust their economy away from exports dependence. If they have internal problems then Australia will be worse off than the US given the massive and continuing population transfer we have undergone coupled with our de-industrialisation and generous welfare system.
loki
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