Oil facing terminal decline, page-6

A typical view in the middle of the range of forecasts I have seen...demand seen increasing to 2040 at incremental rates mainly due to population growth. Plateau to decline slowly from that that point. No problem for CVN assets. Easy oil found, fracking will relegated to history, conventional barely growing now.

After recovering from the "exceptional ferocity" of the COVID-19 crisis, world oil demand will rise from 97.9 million b/d in 2019 to 104.1 million b/d in 2040, according to the IEA's base-case scenario in its latest annual World Energy Outlook.

Compared to last year's report, however, oil demand is likely to be some 2 million b/d lower in 2030, when it stabilizes at just over 103 million b/d on a lower trajectory but continues to edge up for the next decade, according to the IEA.

Clean transport policies and surging renewable energy will continue to eat into oil demand growth, the IEA believes, but petrochemicals and long-distance transport are seen accounting for all net demand growth by 2040.

"The era of global oil demand growth will come to an end in the next decade," IEA head Fatih Birol said. "But without a large shift in government policies, there is no sign of a rapid decline."