COE (ASX) Ann: Q3 FY21 Quarterly Report

Originally posted by equityma: ↑
Cooper Energy is an Australian oil and gas exploration company with assets in the Cooper Basin in South Australia. It has been listed since 2002.
LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME
$0.26
29 Apr
2021
0.000
OPEN
$0.26
0.000
HIGH
$0.26
3,909,763
LOW
$0.26
TARGET
$0.3638.5% upside
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FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
TITLE FY19
ACTUAL FY20
ACTUAL FY21
FORECAST FY22
FORECAST
EPS (cps) - 0.8 - 5.3 - 3.7 1.1
DPS (cps) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EPS Growth N/A N/A N/A N/A
DPS Growth N/A N/A N/A N/A
PE Ratio N/A N/A N/A 23.0
Dividend Yield N/A N/A 0.0% 0.0%
Div Pay Ratio(%) N/A N/A N/A 0.0%
Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago:0.00%

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2021 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved

TITLE 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EPS Basic -16.0 -8.4 -1.9 1.8 -0.8 -5.3
DPS All 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sales/Revenue 39.1 M 20.3 M 34.6 M 67.5 M 76.0 M 79.1 M

EPS Basic
201520162017201820192020-20-10010
DPS All
20152016201720182019202000.250.50.751
Sales/Revenue
201520162017201820192020020406080
This is work in progress. Bear with us. It'll be amazing.
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EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary
Sentiment Indicator
0.2
No. Of Recommendations
5

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION
Morgans
20/04/2021
3
Hold
TARGET PRICE
$0.30
% TO REACH TARGET
15.38%
COMMENTARY
Morgans hopes a good third quarter result (solid production, sales and revenue) signals future strong cash flow generation for the beginning of the fourth quarter, when seasonal gas demand strengthens. The Hold rating and target of $0.30 are maintained.
While the broker sees plenty of value on offer, short-term risks around ramping up production at Sole weigh. In addition, negotiations continue with banks to restructure a debt facility to reflect the longer ramp up.
FORECAST
Morgans forecasts a full yearFY21dividend of0.00cents and EPS ofminus -0.50cents.
Morgans forecasts a full yearFY22dividend of0.00cents and EPS of1.20cents.
Macquarie
20/04/2021
3
Neutral
TARGET PRICE
$0.32
% TO REACH TARGET
23.08%
COMMENTARY
March quarter production and revenue were in line with expectations. Macquarie notes there is growth in gas from the Otway and Gippsland Basins but the company may need more capital to fund its ambitions.
Moreover, without a solution to lifting Orbost gas plant utilisation the risk profile remains high and the broker envisages better risk/reward in Senex Energy ((SXY)) and Karoon Energy ((KAR)).
Neutral rating and $0.32 target retained.
FORECAST
Macquarie forecasts a full yearFY21dividend of0.00cents and EPS ofminus -1.80cents.
Macquarie forecasts a full yearFY22dividend of0.00cents and EPS of0.90cents.
Morgan Stanley
20/04/2021
3
Equal-weight
TARGET PRICE
$0.38
% TO REACH TARGET
46.15%
COMMENTARY
Cooper Energy released third-quarter production results. While performance at the Sole project was in line with the company's guidance, it was below earlier forecasts, points out Morgan Stanley.
Morgan Stanley notes a lingering uncertainty as to whether Cooper will realise 68 TJ/day at the Sole project over the medium term.
Equal-weight retained. Target is 38c. Industry view: Attractive.
FORECAST
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full yearFY21dividend of0.00cents and EPS ofminus -2.00cents.
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full yearFY22dividend of0.00cents and EPS ofminus -1.00cents.
Ord Minnett
20/04/2021
1
Buy
TARGET PRICE
$0.46
% TO REACH TARGET
76.92%
COMMENTARY
Remediation work at the Sole/Orbost project has meant significantly better plant output.
Additionally, Ord Minnett suspects the ruling on Origin Energy's ((ORG)) and Beach Energy's ((BPT)) gas contract has positive implications for Cooper Energy, given the increasing amount of uncontracted gas.
The broker believes Cooper Energy is is the cheapest exploration & production company under coverage and retains a Buy rating. Target rises to $0.46 from $0.45.
FORECAST
Ord Minnett forecasts a full yearFY21dividend of0.00cents and EPS ofminus -1.00cents.
Ord Minnett forecasts a full yearFY22dividend of0.00cents and EPS of2.00cents.
It's hard to justify the sp given the recent cash burn for project development and its negotiation power with banks to increase its debt facility.

Oil& condensate sale was only account for 10% compared to gas sale and why the company hedged the OC price on the back of rising poo?

Gas sale contract was lowered every quater amid Victoria is entering winter season where solar energy could spur the price of gas.
Expand
Ord Minnett analyst has been prominent in the Quarterly calls, it's helpful to understand his target price given his questions were sensible.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
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1314822

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2092093

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32	1291780	0.205
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1291780

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84212

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.210	2125566	23
0.215	537593	15
0.220	349945	12
0.225	690769	8
0.230	909910	13

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No.

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2125566

0.215

537593

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349945

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690769

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909910

(20min delay)
Last 21.0¢		Change 0.005(2.44%)		Mkt cap ! $554.4M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
20.5¢	21.0¢	20.0¢	$265.9K	1.286M

Ann: Q3 FY21 Quarterly Report, page-33

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TITLE	FY19 ACTUAL	FY20 ACTUAL	FY21 FORECAST	FY22 FORECAST
EPS (cps)	- 0.8	- 5.3	- 3.7	1.1
DPS (cps)	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
EPS Growth	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
DPS Growth	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
PE Ratio	N/A	N/A	N/A	23.0
Dividend Yield	N/A	N/A	0.0%	0.0%
Div Pay Ratio(%)	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.0%

Ann: Q3 FY21 Quarterly Report, page-33

EXPERT VIEWS

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Quantum Graphite snags new exploration licence in SA ahead of maiden drilling

Woomera kicks off 2-pronged drilling at Mongolia's Bronze Fox Cu-Au play

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