Global EV vehicles 145m by 2030.

Originally posted by bluesamurai: ↑

The near-term outlook for EV sales is bright, says IEA. In the first quarter of 2021, global electric car sales rose by around 140% compared to the same period in 2020, driven by sales in China of around 500,000 vehicles and in Europe of around 450 000. US sales more than doubled relative to the first quarter of 2020, albeit from a much lower base.Last year’s increase brought the number of electric cars on the world’s roads to more than 10 million, with another roughly 1 million electric vans, heavy trucks and buses.Vehicle manufacturers announced increasingly ambitious electrification plans, IEA reports. Out of the world’s top 20 vehicle manufacturers, which represented around 90% of new car registrations in 2020, 18 have stated plans to widen their portfolio of models and to rapidly scale up the production of light-duty electric vehicles. The model availability of electric heavy-duty vehicles is also broadening, with four major truck manufacturers indicating an all-electric future.For the first time last year, IEA found, Europe overtook China as the centre of the global electric car market. Electric car registrations in Europe more than doubled to 1.4 million, while in China they increased 9% to 1.2 million.Electric vehicles are set for significant growth over the coming decade, IEA reports. Based on current trends and policies, it projects the number of electric cars, vans, heavy trucks and buses on the road worldwide to reach 145 million by 2030. But the global fleet could reach 230 million if governments accelerate efforts to reach international climate and energy goals. QUOTE Cobalt demand dramatic growth IMO

https://www.mining.com/worlds-electric-vehicle-fleet-to-reach-145-million-by-2030-report/

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IMO, those 145 million EVs on the road by 2030 (8.5 years) is wishful thinking
given our current global economic climate.

About 93 million vehicles in total were produced in 2019 & 78 million in 2020 due to Covid.
IMO the 2021 total will be about the same as 2020 because of Covid and the shortage
of auto electronic chips (this shortage has caused a shortage of supply in Aus for the past 3 months
and will likely last at least another 3, IMO.

https://www.acea.be/statistics/article/world-production

So lets have a reasonable look at the phase -in transition rate to Evs.

We have a target of 145 million vehicles for 8.5 years from above.
We have about 11 million EV's on the road now so
by simple arithmetic we'd need an extra 15.75 million Evs
hitting the road per year on average until 2030

Say last year 3 million Evs were produced .
To hit the 145 mil target means that if there is a consistent growth
of Evs that production would have to hit 12 million by late 2025
an overall growth of 400%during that period . Perhaps China can achieve its share of that
but IMO Western car makers are strapped for cash due to the
crash in the overall market from 93 million to 78 million vehicles
in one year alone (-16%) with the same medicine in prospect
until at least 2023. then they wont have the capital to scale up
EV production at the required rate, IMO.

Also EVs sales are greatly driven by government subsidies &
tax concessions and with Covid driving most government
budgets deep in the red, there will be more urgent Government holes
to fill with taxpayers funds that throwing it at EVs which at present
are mostly transport for the middle classes.

So in summary the 145 million target is over optimistic IMO
given a world in recession due to Covid, automakers strapped for
cash due to the sudden contraction of the market size and
Government lollies likely go to those in dire need rather
than subsidise a new set of wheels for the middle class.

I realise that the above forecast was issued by mining.com
so I'd suggest that there may be slightly influenced by
a future hip pocket returns (more spruik than science, IMO)

All IMO only and investors should always consult a licensed financial
planner before making any investment decision
MM