gold, page-95046

Very good and appropriate questions.
I have a few trading rules and try to abide by them without fear or favour and these rules are surprisingly simple.
I am a firm believer in trends - support and resistance.
Taking profit when a target price is hit, regardless of expectations.
I spread my investments across many stocks, usually in identical amounts, even if all in the same sector (e.g. gold).
I do not play favourites.
Use both TA and fundamental analysis.
To save time, I use TA then look at the fundamentals. Nothing worse than buying a stock near support - then they do a capital raise.
My first target is to get a stock free-carried (when building a portfolio).
The real saviour of capital is the stop loss.
My worse enemy - my emotions.
A good time to ask these questions because today I put in bids for a bunch of producers. Most between 2 - 5% below the current price because this is where I see support. I may get none or I might get the lot. If I get them they could still fall further but the trend tells me if I have made a bad decision and I will sell at a loss if the trends get taken out.
The way I trade and how I trade is not for everyone.
Having a well defined trading strategy reduces your risk.
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To answer your question directly - there is no such thing as a dead certainty.
Stocks that fall are easier to trade than stocks that go sideways - ask anyone that has held SBM for 4 years.
The trend identifies buying opportunities as well as when to get out. SBM were a million miles away from their rising trend therefore had to consolidate. At some point, DEG, CHN and a number of other bolters will do the same.
The lower low, while counter intuitive, has more to do with market dynamics than anything else (the shake out).
You HAVE to know the general direction of the sector.
Buying a lower low when the sector is falling (trending lower) can be a disaster.
Unless there is a fundamental reason the stock is falling then it could be expected to reverse - watch for a signal/pattern or use a trustworthy indicator.
I will make this point - this type of TA works best for producers. Juniors are news driven. How they respond to news is dependent on the overall direction of the sector.
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I hope this gives you some insight into how I perceive the market and how to trade it.
I am not a professional trader or chartist. Like most people - I learned that I knew nothing and did the hard yards.
Things have changed and it took years.
My suggestion is to improve your skills in TA, works out how to identify market and sector direction and put your emotions in your back pocket - and sit on them.