Since our numbers are similar at different points, I will add mine on here. I won't look anywhere as good as yours though! ha
Here are a few of the assumptions I made:
- Pillar 3 trials are successful
- Pillar 1 trials are successful
- Pillar 2 outcomes not included.
- All options converted in 21/22 FY
- Cost of EM AML trial - $25m - Global (30% in Aust)
- Cost of BC POC - $5m - Aust
- Cost of FTO P1 - $2.5m - Aust
- Cost of FTO P2 POC - $15m - Aust
- EM AML trial 2 yrs - Commence 21/22 - costs spread over 2 years
- BC POC - Commence 21/22 - Cost in 21/22
- When Bisantrene is approved for AML is it used off label for Ovarian cancer
- Bisantrene is used in 5% of PD-1 and PD-L1 sales
- A lot of the miscellaneous accounting numbers are just estimates based on previous accounts and possible business activities
Profit and Loss -
Balance Sheet -.
.
NPV (Extremely simplistic)
- 15% discount back from commencement of peak sales
- additional time factor discount rate
I will highlight though - I still think it will be very difficult for RAC to break the $1b MC without a partnership or revenue. And I believe the former will come this FY when Pillar 3 results are flowing in to the market.
IMO, DYOR, etc
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