January would be convenient date, and my own view is you could even be correct. I've been in and out of MSB on two occasions and lost both times, c'est la vie, that's the market - I made my decisions and I'm comfortable with them.
Last year, in my opinion anyway, MSB was a compelling investment prospect. Four phase three trials about to report, including the Covid ARDS trial which followed the very promising Mt Sinai results. I thought the GVHD result was perverse, as a matter of fact I still do. That one makes absolutely no sense to me. That didn't prevent me holding, although the continual lack of communication from the company about what was going on concerned me.
The Chronic Heart Failure results on 15 December were disappointing. The primary endpoint was missed although there was promising data and the Novartis collaboration announced in November provided me with some comfort, even as the price dropped 15% that day from the previous days closing price of $4.54.
The termination of the Covid ARDS trial for futility announced on 18 December and the subsequent price capitulation of over 36% was the catalyst for me to cut my losses and exit. Nothing to do with the AFR, Tom Richardson or shorters. The closing price that day was $2.41 from a $4.54 just a few days earlier.
Since that time the primary end point for Chronic Lower Back pain was missed, another capital raising has happened and the Novartis deal is an unknown quantity.
While there are many positives to take from the phase III results (it's why I continue to watch this company so closely) the ongoing poor communication from the company and its failure to achieve any primary end points from the four phase III trials (two of which were delivered shockingly late based on the companies own time frames) have far more to do with the current share price than anything else.
There's no question there are shorters galore in MSB, but the reason they are here, and Tom Richardson is here, is due to the results, primarily from December last year, but also right up to and including the latest results.
Even the Covid ARDS data recently released was difficult to follow and understand. Exactly how many people under 65 were randomised, how many received standard of care and how many received remestemcel-L along with dexamethasone compared to those who received standard of care alone. The announcement doesn't say. Also, what's the mortality rate of those under 65 with Covid ARDS anyway and what impact is the vaccine program having on the death rate. There's so much information that it's difficult to know.
Simply put, it appears to me a large part of the market have lost faith in MSB management. Plaintiff law firms, short sellers and journalists attack the weak and the sick at the edge of the herd, but the attacking is due to the underlying weakness.
I agree with an observation
@ddwn made on the paradigm shift thread. MSB need to come up with an announcement that is going to knock it out of the park if you want to see a significant or sustained increase in the share price. The Novartis deal may see an uptick concordant with the 60 day Covid Ards data, but I have trouble seeing where the news that's going to 'knock it out of the park' is going to come from.
That's the view from this former holder with no axe to grind and no skin in the MSB game.
(20min delay)