ASH Full Year 2021 Forecasts, page-3

I suspect that when you're 62 the idea of retiring at 70 seems about right, but when you're 70 it seems way too young. I guess it all depends on how much RS enjoys it (which given how the business is going I suspect he does) and whether someone offers him a reasonable price for the business. Given the current state of capital markets and low interest rates, we are in an environment where demand for these types of businesses is strong. Private equity in particular is likely to be interested given the strong free cashflow of these businesses (i.e. you can load it with debt and pay it down fairly quickly). The only problem is I'm not sure private equity would lob a bid high enough to get RS's attention at the moment. As I've mentioned previously, if you use PPE as a good benchmark and assume that ASH should be priced at a 30% discount to PPE given PPE's focus on more stable healthcare labour hire, ASH should be valued today at 70c+ (or at least after the FY results if they meet my forecasts). Given this is a valuation of the current business, I doubt RS will be attracted by a bid below much $1 (he also might have $1.15 in mind as I think that was the float price and he might have a sentimental attachment to that number). This might seem fanciful given the current 45c share price, but this stock could easily take a decent leg up after the FY results. If the share price drifts towards 70c, we could see RS start to get some reasonable approaches from potential buyers. Either way, this is all upside to the current share price which looks like a bargain whatever way I cut the numbers. I also feel comfortable that RS's incentives are nicely aligned to mine and I'm happy to let him manage the exit plan.