I recently became a shareholder after following the stock for a while. As part of my "due diligence" I did a share value sensitivity analysis based upon the assumption that the project eventually proceeds to production. As part of this process i made a number of assumptions on the variables of: Total resource (gold only), Gold price, Cost of production and capital raising to fund pruduction. Let me share some results with you:
I have assumed they'd eventually need to raise $60m in new capital with an SPP priced at 80cents. This means an additional 75m new shares, bringing the total issued to 351.9m I figure the remainder would come from a combination of debt and forward gold sales.
1. Current co data: 1.092m ozs. Gold price at A$1180 and production cost of A360/oz. Result: Share value of $2.45
2. Worst case scenario: 0.5m ozs. Gold price at A$900 and production cost of A$450/oz. Result: Share value of $0.63
3. Upside Scenario: 1.2m ozs. Gold price at A$1300 and production cost of A$400/oz. Result: Share value of $3.069
I hasten to add that these share valuations are on the basis of CQT being in production, but don't account for the potential for copper and silver production (a bonus).
There is a ways to go, but i have to say my maths convinced me that this looks pretty good from a longer term perspective. How it trades in the short term is anyones guess.
Cheers all.
CQT Price at posting:
48.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
