Ann: Profit Guidance, page-2

I am surprised that they give an earning guidance so early for FY 6/21.
As last year May and June were very strong months for the industry, I thought that MTO would be cautious and wait to give any indication for FY 6/21 results.
Obviously, it is a good sign and probably shows that :
- Q3 was another good quarter for them (cf their indication that the market for new bikes was up by 51 % during the period Jan-March),
- Q4 continues to be good and the company does not see any sign of slowdown despite a higher basis of comparison.

Their guidance for underlying EBITDA of 42-45 m for FY 21 corresponds to a normal seasonality for them, if we exclude the impact of jobkeeper (H1 underlying EBITDA was 26.8 m including 5.8 m for jobkeeper).
Based on their indications (return to a payout of 50-70 % excluding jobkeeper), they should have a dividend yield between 6.5 % and 10 %.
Their free cash flow yield (excluding jobkeeper) should be at least 12 %.

The stock looks really cheap based on the elements above (as well as PE).
It reflect in particular the fact that they are in a cycle sector.
So, I still prefer to value them based on their average profitability during a cycle, which justifies a share price of around 4.25 $.

As indicated in a previous post, this is a subjective valuation based on an average ROE of 13.2 % (vs 16-18 %e in FY 21) and a cost of equity estimated at 7 %.