Interesting day today, overall I'm happy with the charts and how well we have held our gains so far. Tomorrow's close is going to fairly critical and will likely set the sentiment for the direction of the next swing. On the daily chart, Friday's doji candle indicated the potential for a reversal/breather to take place. Today however gives us a rare candle - the dragonfly doji. The High, Low and Close all at the same price, in this case 0.260. Generally speaking, the following (tomorrow) closing price will decide the direction. If we close at 0.255 or lower we will likely head to test the strength of the 200%(0.23) on Wednesday. If we close at 0.265 or higher then we are probably going to the 261.8, likely even to retest or making new highs. If our last pre-auction trade is around 0.260 then I expect tomorrows closing auction will be worth taking the time to watch. The volume could be very volatile as the bulls and the bears go all out war with whatever tactics they can, right up until the hammer drops. Looking forward to watching that one. If you want your chance to influence the direction either way, tomorrows closing auction is the one to put your bids on.
DF doji daily:
A few ongoing considerations from weightiest (highest TF).
Weekly chartA fairly safe entry when going with a strong trend is when the price gets back to the green w5. Unfortunately this MA continually calculates with each price change until the close of the bar, so sometimes (and in this case) the candle doesn't actually 'touch' the w5 until the train has left the station, because as the current price of the candle moved higher eventually becoming the close price, the w5 MA became steeper moving up to the bottom the candle wick only becoming 'locked' on place when the bar closed. Having said all of that, this box has been ticked to move higher, the w5 is now kissing the bottom of the candle. Strangely our 423.6% fib actually doesn't look out of reach here. I think because we are accustomed to looking at 6c,9c,11c prices, 42.5c seems like a ridiculous short/medium term target, but technically there is no reason why it cannot reach it. After all, a 423.6% would be just a 161.8% of a larger move (for eg,
A)Nov low,
B)current high,
C)50% retrace to original 161.8% at 19 giving target
D) around 41c). Let's see what happens.
DailyDaily chart is where our doji is. It's worth putting a w5 and e21 on the chart and back testing to see how many times the w5 actually crosses over the e21 when it has significant steepness to it. You will find that almost always the strength of the e21 steepness repulses the weaker w5 back away from it, and usually at quite a distance. Each time the w5 tries to reach back, it does however start to flatten out the e21. A shallower/neutral angle e21 can be crossed over with ease. I think our w5 is about to be pushed upward again here, we have a pretty steep e21. All our heavier MA's have recently increased their angle showing the momentum of the move and likely why our gains have held easily. But again, tomorrow is critical. Having said that, if the bears win tomorrow it should be comparatively muted move as what it will be should the bulls win. On this chart, it needs to be pointed out that if we don't post a new higher bar on our MACD tomorrow we will have a weak bearish divergence shown in pink.
HourlyThe hourly is my favourite at the moment. The turquoise e55 MA is a fantastic support, particularly so in trending markets, as is evident on the chart. The e55 is now at the same level as the 200% fib at 0.23 - this makes for a strong bottom. The more we bounce off it, the stronger it is. Not only that, but the sellers were really struggling to push the price down as the day wore on. Trending higher lows is always nice to see. Here is a good example of how the e21 repulses the w5 away. Based on this picture alone I would expect to retest the highs tomorrow. In the same way that the w5 is influenced by the heavier e21, so is the e21 by the e55; the e55 by e100 and e100/e200. The upward pressure on this chart is nice and strong. In addition we also have bullish divergence on every single recent low no matter how you draw it. Great. What I expect to see and what we actually see.. 24hrs
All in all I'm still smiling. I'm still half expecting news tomorrow, and if that happens and is blockbuster then don't be surprised if we are headed for 423.6%. As always, let's see what happens .
(20min delay)